The most welcome news, Monday, was a major US Intelligence report that Iran was not currently trying to develop nuclear weapons. The National Intelligence Estimate reported that Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, but continues to enrich uranium. Enriched uranium is used in nuclear bombs but Tehran maintains its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes. The report which draws together information from 16 Intelligence agencies of the US, says with 'high confidence' that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 'in response to international pressure.' The assessment says with 'moderate confidence' that the program has not restarted. This marks a turnaround from previous assessments, where US Intelligence agencies believed Iran was trying to build a nuclear weapon. Sanctions have already been imposed on Iran by both the UN Security Council which is demanding that Iran stop uranium enrichment, and unilateral US sanctions.
The timing of the release of this report is significant. It is almost impossible to accept that President Bush was unaware of the findings of NIE on October 17th when he said at a press conference ' If you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them (Iran) from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon.' The obvious benefit to President Bush after the release of this report is that he now has an excuse for a graceful climb down from the extreme posture that he had adopted and any change in which would have meant a tremendous loss of face for the US. It also seeks to reassure the world that the various specialized agencies of the US government are independent and impartial bodies , free from political influence, an image the US is anxious to project after the fiasco over the alleged weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. Another possible reason for this abrupt about turn could be the growing realization that all this saber rattling was was only serving to strengthen the position of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran. In fact Iran appears to be happy with a few sanctions as they serve to divert the attention of its people from the failures of their government.US actions have in fact only served to marginalize the moderate faction, led by Khatami, in Iranian politics. Added to this is the realization that presently the US is in no position to take on Iran in a conventional war as the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan are still to be concluded.The US is also anxious to hold on to the tenuous military gains it has made in Iraq over the past few months. It is also concerned at reports of the Taliban regrouping in Afghanistan. They now seem to be making their presence felt across the entire country, outside their strongholds of southern and south-eastern Afghanistan.Iran shares an extensive common border with both countries and Iranian assistance would be crucial in prolonging the duration and intensity of the insurgencies in both the countries.Iran has long been suspected of aiding anti US forces in both countries. With elections round the corner the US government is keen to bring some troops back home as evidence of the success of its current policies, especially in Iraq.The perceived failure of US policies in Iraq threatens to be a major issue in next year's US presidential election.
Whatever be the real reason,the report has certainly eased tensions significantly as it rules out any possibility of a military strike on Iran in the near future.In fact Russia and China may even oppose further sanctions against Iran. Most importantly it serves to reinforce confidence in diplomacy and international pressure as a means of solving international crises in future.