Ms. Benazir Bhutto returned home to Pakistan a few months back after almost a decade in luxurious exile spent mainly in London.She went back under a deal brokered by the US with Pakistan President Mr. Musharraf which would have almost certainly seen her back in office for a third time as Prime Minister of Pakistan.She must certainly have been aware of the dangers surrounding her, but seemed to feel secure amongst her millions of supporters and because of the assurances given by both the US and Pakistan governments.Soon after her arrival a bomb exploded at one of her meetings killing over a hundred people.It is hard to tell whether she was the target or it was meant to scare her away.Ms. Bhutto continued with her election campaign little realizing that somebody had decided that she was not to be allowed to run for office.On the 27th of December a group of assassins waited for her in the garrison city of Rawalpindi. As she was about to leave after an election meeting she was shot by one or more snipers who were lying in wait and also targeted by a suicide bomber.This was no hit or miss attempt.Clearly, barring a miracle, she was not to be allowed to leave the place alive.The complete breakdown of her security apparatus and the failure of US intelligence has unnerved Washington which has no alternate plan in place.
Ms. Bhutto's death leaves the US strategy for Pakistan in tatters, that is if they had a strategy in the first place. All they seem to have had was a fond hope that by having a US backed civilian Prime Minister and an ex-military General as President they would be able to convince the increasingly restless population of Pakistan that democracy had been restored. The stability of a nuclear armed Pakistan is of vital importance to the US. Added to this is the fact that Pakistan is a front line state in the war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda. Perhaps it this latter fact that prompted Washington to turn a blind eye to what was going on in Pakistan for the last several years.They suddenly woke up to the fact that the billions of dollars sent to Pakistan to finance the fight against international terror were being used elsewhere, and that despite Mr. Musharraf's assurances to the contrary the fundamentalist forces were making important gains in Pakistan, both in military terms and also in winning over the hearts and minds of the people. The US administration took a predictably simplistic view of the situation.They set out to destabilize Mr. Musharraf.They struck a deal with Ms. Bhutto.Mr. Musharraf was compelled to hand over command of the army to a general perceived as pro-Western in outlook, and accept the post of President.He also announced general elections in January next year.Ms. Bhutto was allowed to return to Pakistan to contest elections while her fellow politician Nawaz Sharif was deported again after his return.
Now there is a big question mark hanging over the elections.Is the postponement indefinite, will it lead to more violence which may lead to further postponement.Has the postponement been prompted by fear of a pro-PPP sympathy wave in the wake of Ms. Bhutto's killing or a genuine fear of massive violence.
The time available to the Bush administration is clearly very short.It remains to be seen whether they insist that Nawaz Sharif be allowed to return and fight the elections or they would prefer to do business with Ms. Bhutto's successor in the PPP.For the time being at least the US does not appear to insist that the Supreme Court judges sacked recently be re-instated, a factor behind the current unrest in Pakistan.The time available to Ms. Bhutto's PPP is also short.The party is certain to be swept to power by a sympathy wave even though the intensity may be slightly diminished by the postponement.They will have to put aside their internal squabbles and elect a suitable leader.Of course Ms. Bhutto's charisma will be difficult to match.
There are many unanswered questions at the moment.What was the deal that Ms. Bhutto had struck with the US.Why did Mr. Musharraf allow her to stay while deporting Mr. Nawaz Sharif.Most importantly, did she die because she was increasingly being viewed as an alternative to the present regime or because she appeared to be even more pro-West than the present government. The answers will have to wait for some time. What looks certain though is that the US will have to continue doing business with Mr. Musharraf in the foreseeable future.