Contrary to US official reports many experts now feel that unless NATO dramatically increases its military commitment in Afghanistan, the Taliban may recapture the country.Driven out of Afghanistan in 2001 it has returned and rebuilt a permanent presence in over half the country and seems to be facing no difficulty in finding new recruits as well as supplies.It has recently resurfaced in the North of the country and in areas bordering Iran as well.Their stated aim is to retake Kabul by 2008 and that seems quite likely at the moment.
What is behind their success?First of all they do not seem to be short of motivated soldiers and Pakistan provides them with a secure base from where to launch their attacks against NATO forces in Afghanistan.Despite having lost many military leaders the Taliban do not seem to be short of middle level leaders to take the places of those killed or wounded.They are also not short of funds.They are thought to be financing their operations with the profits from Afghanistan's opium trade.Ironically, while they were in power they had declared war on the drug trade and had almost brought it to a stop.Their tactics of suicide and roadside bombings is also proving to be highly effective.Their strategy of hiding amongst the civilian population has also been very successful as it has both discouraged retaliatory attacks by NATO forces and the high level of civilian casualties has also alienated the local Afghan population.Iran is a constant source of support and it is now feared that even Russia has been secretly helping them.Indeed, of late they have become bold enough to even challenge the Pakistani army and in fact they have succeeded in establishing control over large territories in the North West of Pakistan.
Most experts however feel that the situation is not hopeless and that NATO can still win.They point out that the basic mistake the US made was to attack Iraq before finishing the job in Afghanistan.It diverted a large number of its troops and war material, especially the unmanned Predator drones which affected NATO's fighting capabilities and left them with insufficient forces to finish off the job.What is needed now is an Iraq style troop 'surge' to improve the security situation coupled with strong efforts to win the hearts and minds of the Afghan people through speedy reconstruction of the war ravaged country.It is estimated that the NATO troop strength of 40,000 will have to be at least doubled for the purpose.It is clear that NATO will have to act quickly if it is to succeed.The events of 9/11 are a grim reminder that it cannot afford to fail.