The US strategy of troops 'surge' in Iraq seems to be succeeding beyond expectations.Although it would be premature to declare victory over the extremists and their al-Qaeda supporters,it can definitely be claimed that there is a significant improvement in the overall security environment in Iraq.Nationwide, attacks have fallen 55% since summer and stepped up military operations against both Shia as well as Sunni extremists have driven them from most of their earlier strongholds, although pockets of resistance still remain.They are also believed to be regrouping in other parts of the country.
The improving situation on the ground has prompted refugees to start returning to the country, particularly to Baghdad, where they are being warmly welcomed by friends and relatives.While many have returned due to the improved security situation,others have come back due to the harsh visa requirements put in place by Syria since last month which has made it more difficult for Iraqis to stay there.Many of the refugees have also come back because they were simply running out of cash.Unable to find jobs and being frequently on the move has taken a heavy toll on these people.Even the well off have been impoverished by years in exile.
The Iraqi government on its part is encouraging them to come back and has started to organize free trips and protected convoys for the purpose. Even free air tickets are being offered.But it is going to be a long time before all the estimated 2.2 million refugees finally come home.
Abdul Samad Sultan the country's displacement and migration minister claims that almost 1600 Iraqis are returning everyday, most of them from Syria which is home to the maximum number of Iraqi refugees.This is the main reason why Syria has tightened visa requirements because it claims that the influx of refugees has stressed its education, health and housing system to a point that international assistance is needed.
The biggest problem facing people who have returned is that many find that others have occupied their homes while they were away. The Iraqi government is trying to help these people get their homes back and is also handing out loans to set up small businesses to make these people self reliant and to integrate with other people.
Although refugees have started trickling back most of them are waiting to make sure that the reduction in violence is not simply a lull but a 'long term phenomenon.' They are convinced that the let up in bloodshed is only due to the massive security presence and that can't last forever. They are certain that the withdrawal of foreign troops will spark a bloody civil war. It looks as if US troops will have to stay for much longer than intended despite the political compulsions at home to bring them back as soon as possible.